Versión electrónica ISSN 0718 - 1566 Versión impresa ISSN 0716 - 1921
Evolution of Exportation Prices of Chilean Wood Boards
Using monthly prices of medium-density fibreboard, particleboard and plywood board from 1990 to 2008, this work analyzes the evolution of the average nominal export price of the main types of wood boards of Chile. We decompose the original series with a multiplicative interaction model in its four components: trend (Tt), cycle (Ct), seasonality (Et) and irregularity (It). We also find that the function that best fits the price trend line for the three products is a polynomial one of order 3 and 5. The results of this study show that the seasonality of the price series is due to that Chile has opposite seasons respect to the countries it exports. Also, cyclicality in prices is infl uenced by the fl uctuations in economic activity in the markets of China and the United States, mainly for medium density boards and particleboards. Additional results from this model predict that the FOB prices for 2011 are: 380.8, 198.5 and 668.1 dollars per tonne for medium-density fibreboard, particleboard and plywood board, respectively.